This is our second week of James’ Weekly Punt- last week had you put down $25 on each of my tips you would have left the weekend $100 ahead with one of the bets still in play- not bad if I do say so myself.
Now that I have finished patting myself on the back let’s see if I can back up that form
This Weekend’s Games
Essendon vs. Carlton
This game is sure to be a close one just as the last encounter was. Essendon have just come of a confidence boosting win against the hapless Demons and Carlton fought gamely in a loss that would have had the same effect.
If you think Carlton are going to win go with the 1-39 point margin offering $2.25 but if you are like me and are after a bit more value go for Essendon in a close one to win by 1-19 points which pays a tantalizing $6.00.
Recommended bet: Essendon 1-19 points at $6.00
Collingwood vs. Fremantle
Fremantle may have run the premiership favorite close last round but they have a strange habit of doing that against Geelong. If you think Fremantle can win (there is a case for this based on the patchy results between these two clubs) don’t get greedy and stick with the straight win at $6.25 odds.
If you are more of a realist and think Collingwood aren’t going to get so far ahead of themselves that they lose this game then you’re going to have to look to the margins to get any real value. Collingwood have an average winning margin of 39 points this year and I can’t see Fremantle losing by more than that so am going to go with Collingwood by 20-39 points at $4.50 odds.
Recommended bet: Collingwood 20-39 points at $4.50
Adelaide vs. Sydney
Adelaide is showing some seriously impressive form of late so it is hard to go against them in this one; they have also won their last 5 against the Swans. If Sydney manages to win it won’t be by much so if you don’t believe in form or talent waste your money on them by 1-19 points at $7.00 odds.
On the other hand if you aren’t an idiot and plan on tipping Adelaide there isn’t much value around even when you go the margin and while I’m tempted by the 1-19 point margin in Adelaides favor at $4.25 I think it’s about a dollar short of what I’d like to see and as such will be going with a conservative bet of Adelaide by 1-39 points at $2.20 odds.
Recommended bet: Adelaide by 1-39 points at $2.20
Brisbane vs. Melbourne
Melbourne actually won their last game against Brisbane in round 14 last year (by a point but whose counting) and haven’t thrown the towel in too often this year; despite this they stand just about no chance- as always if you think they are going to win don’t get greedy and go with the $8.75 odds for the win if you’re a fool.
With regards to tipping Brisbane the odds in general are short, oddly though the margin bet that encompasses both Brisbane’s average winning margin (30 points) and Melbourne’s average losing margin (36 points) in the form of Brisbane by 20-39 points is one of the bets offering good value at $5.00, I’ll be getting on that.
Recommended bet: Brisbane by 20-39 points at $5.00
West Coast vs. Hawthorn
Hawthorn’s disgraceful performance last week actually has me tipping the Eagles despite how poor they themselves looked. West Coast at home won’t be easy so I’ll be getting on them to win by 1-39 points at $3.50 odds.
If you can’t justify that risk then Hawthorn’s odds of $1.44 for the win wouldn’t excite many of you but if you can decide if the Hawks are more likely to win by 1-19 points or 20-39 points both are offering decent value at $4.25 odds.
Recommended bet: West Coast by 1-39 points at $3.50 odds- if you’re brave.
Geelong vs. Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide are at $10.00 odds for the win and if you’re one of those people who believe odds like that are ridiculous in a two horse race then get on them.
I however feel odds like that are fair enough in this sort of situation and with Port Adelaide’s losing margin being 51 points I’ll be going with Geelong by between 40-59 points at $4.25 odds, I’ll be hoping the Cats don’t feel the need to send a message to the Saints though.
Recommended bet: Geelong by 40-59 points at $4.25 odds
North Melbourne vs. Western Bulldogs
If you believe the new coach theory then North Melbourne’s $5.75 odds are good value.
The reality however is North have been embarrassed over the last few weeks and now face a side who desperately wants to be considered a premiership chance and as such the Dogs by 40-59 points seems realistic to me at $4.25.
Recommended bet: Western Bulldogs by 40-59 points at $4.25
St Kilda vs. Richmond
As a St Kilda supporter I can’t help but be nervous that the Saints get a bit ahead of themselves and if you agree with that thought then St Kilda by 1-19 points at $5.50 and Richmond for the win at $8.00 odds both offer good value.
The opposite side of the equation is St Kilda come out really fired up, in which case it could get ugly, really ugly. I think it will so consider the Saints by more than 60 points at $2.75 odds but I’m going to be a bit more conservative and go with the Saints by more than 40 points at $1.85 odds.
Recommended bet: St Kilda by 40+ at $1.85
Stay Up-to-date
Never miss a big story again by subscribing to us by RSS, email or twitter.
