Last week’s tips came through nicely and I hope you at least gave them a thought. Hopefully my round 16 tips will serve us just as well. Don’t forget to share your tips.
This Round’s Games
Essendon vs. Western Bulldogs
This is a hard game to tip as Essendon have shown they can take it up to some of the best teams, their odds look generous at $3.15 but I can’t see the Dogs dropping this clash- their experience should get them over the line.
$10 Recommended bet: Western Bulldogs 1-39 points at $2.25
Carlton vs. Sydney
Coming off contrasting results last week- Sydney are going to struggle to make the top 8 whilst Carlton are looking to cement their place in it and maybe push for the top 4. If Sydney loses this there is no way they are going to play finals, so there is plenty to play for.
If you think Sydney is any sort of a chance make sure you have a good look at their $3.90 odds for the win.
Carlton will be my tip though and I am tossing up between margins of 1-19 points at $4.25 or 1-39 points at $2.25 odds as Sydney almost always give you a tight match.
$10 Recommended bet: Carlton 1-39 points at $2.25
Geelong vs. Melbourne
Very tempted by Melbourne with odds of $11.50 for the win, Geelong is clearly underdone and has lost momentum over the last two weeks, if Melbourne gives them a red hot crack they could actually pull this off!
Geelong should be too good though so I’m going to stick with the 1-39 margin (which seems to be a favorite this week) at $2.80 odds.
$5 Recommended bet: Geelong 1-39 points at $2.80
$5 Recommended bet: Melbourne for the win at $11.50
Fremantle vs. Brisbane
Fremantle were embarrassed last week by the Crows and the only possible reason you could think they are a chance is the Subiaco factor- which seems insignificant these days.
Brisbane needs to win this comfortably if they are a chance for the top 4 and I think they will.
$10 Recommended bet: Brisbane by more the 40 points at $3.00
Collingwood vs. Hawthorn
I’m reluctant to pick Hawthorn these days and Collingwood is showing some imposing form- Hawthorn are offering $3.10 for the win but I just can’t see them pulling it off.
I’ll have a look at the Tri-Bet here as I never know what Hawthorn will deliver.
$10 Recommended bet: Tri-Bet- Collingwood over 15.5 points at $1.85
Port Adelaide vs. West Coast
In my tipping competition I have gone with Port Adelaide but when you have a look at last week’s results, Port got beaten by Melbourne and West Coast stuck with a tired St Kilda for three quarters- perhaps West Coast deserve a look at $5.10 odds.
At the very least I would expect Port Adelaide to win but West Coast should stick with them like they did the Saints last week.
$10 Recommended bet: Port Adelaide 1-39 at $2.30 odds.
Richmond vs. North Melbourne
Who knows who is going to win this one- both teams have struggled this year but shown potential – I’m going to stick with North who looked the goods for a lot of the game last week, until a few of Hawthorns better players stood up.
$10 Recommended bet: North Melbourne for the win at $1.90
St Kilda vs. Adelaide
Easily match of the round, St Kilda has beaten all comers this year (including Adelaide) but Adelaide are finishing the year with real purpose and are a big dark horse for the flag.
St Kilda will be aware of this and will definitely be coming to play but who knows what the margin will be- I’m going to go the line bet (-20.5) at $1.92 but I am stupidly tempted by Adelaide’s 1-39 point margin at $4.00 odds and perhaps it is just my St Kilda bias stopping me recommending that bet.
$10 Recommended bet: St Kilda at the line for $1.92 odds.
Last Round’s Games
See the tips here
Last Round’s Games
Western Bulldogs vs. Collingwood
$10 Recommended bet: Western Bulldogs for the win at $1.60
Actual Result: Collingwood by a point.
Comment: Got close but clearly I underrate Collingwood.
Sydney vs. Essendon
$10 Recommended bet: Essendon for the win at $2.15
Actual Result: Essendon by 35 points.
Comment: First win for the round!
Carlton vs. Richmond
$10 Recommended bet: Carlton 1-39 points at $2.20
Actual Result: Carlton by 20 points.
Comment: The Fevola show ensured this bet came through.
Brisbane vs. Geelong
$10 Recommended bet: Brisbane for the win at $3.05
Actual Result: Brisbane by 43 points.
Comment: A juicy odds win thanks to Geelong not caring.
Adelaide vs. Fremantle
$10 Recommended bet: Fremantle/Adelaide for the Half Time-Full Time Double at $8.50 odds.
Actual Result: Adelaide by 117.
Comment: I thought Fremantle would show fight for a half- I was wrong.
Hawthorn vs. North Melbourne
$10 Recommended bet: Hawthorn for the win at $1.52
Actual Result: Hawthorn by 9 points.
Comment: Thank you Lance Franklin. Another win.
Melbourne vs. Port Adelaide
$5 Recommended bet: Melbourne for the win at $3.05
$5 Recommended bet: Melbourne/Port Adelaide for the Half Time/Full Time Double at $7
Actual Result: Melbourne by 9 points.
Comment: One tip got up- at $3.05 it covers the other though.
West Coast vs. St Kilda
$10 Recommended bet: St Kilda 1-39 points at $2.25
Actual Result: St Kilda by 20 points.
Comment: A tired looking St Kilda and an enthused West Coast ensured this tip was right as well.
Summary (if $10 placed on each recommended bet): $101.95 in the positive this week- hope some of you got on.
Year to date (5 weeks) total (if $10 placed on each recommended bet):
$108.95 ahead
As always we’d love your feedback and thoughts!
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