With two massive games and the top 8 to be shaped, it should be a good round.
Here are this weeks previews for round 14′s games.
Collingwood vs. Essendon
SportsBET: $1.54 vs. $2.55
4th vs. 7th
The stakes are high in this game with the result likely to have a big bearing on 4th position by the end of the season.
Collingwood on paper, are one of the form teams in the competition with 5 wins in a row whilst also being the highest scoring team. That for me at least, is a bit of a ruse however. Of the 5 teams they have beaten, those teams currently sit at 16th, 15th, 12th, 11th and 10th on the ladder. Given that Essendon are the first team in some time to be facing Collingwood in good form adds to the encounter.
Whilst the wins against poor quality of the opposition has been a criticism of the Pies; you could pretty much say the same thing about Essendon. Especially considering that all of Essendon’s wins this year have been against teams below them; bar the ANZAC day game against Collingwood of course……
If the Pies can keep Essendon quiet in the 3rd quarter where the Bombers have set up their last two big wins, they should win, but you get the feeling that the team that deals with the weather the best, will get over the line and with Watson and McVeigh out, the Pies would have to be the safest bet.
SuperCoach watch: Didak has been killing it in the past few weeks with an average of 156pt’s over the last few weeks. The Pies have the nice ins’ of Pendlebury and Davis, both who have averaged 109pt’s and 122pt’s respectively.
Essendon’s Jobe Watson is a big loss for Essendon and those that have him in their team given how suited he is to the anticipated weather conditions.
It’s your last week to jump on Andrew Welsh at $436,400 before his price jumps up. He should thrive in the wet and windy conditions.
By Vish
Melbourne vs. West Coast
SportsBET odds: $2.05 vs. $1.80
16th vs. 12th
This has the opportunity to be a cracker of a contest. Melbourne have not been in form last three weeks; getting smashed by Collingwood, Essendon and Brisbane. West Coast just beat the reigning premiers where we saw the emergence of Nic Naitanui the match winning forward. All the bright eyed Eagles supporters would have high hopes after the effort the club showed last week. West Coast, however do not play Melbourne well at the MCG. Last year Melbourne thrashed them 79 to 45 when the Demons were playing some downright shocking football.
West Coast has a big opportunity this week to beat Melbourne, the bottom placed side, the game is there for them to win, and they are clearly the better side. The one thing Melbourne has going for it is that it is playing at home where it has a good record against West Coast.
My tip is Melbourne will do it for Jim and win by a point.
Wouldn’t put my house on it though.
SuperCoach watch: Nic Naitanui is an excitement for the West Coast faithful; he isn’t brilliant for SuperCoach purposes yet. Nic Naitanui is not the most effective ball user in the AFL but he will improve in future years. He could have a big game this week, like most of the Eagle’s side. Matt Priddis is coming off 141 SuperCoach points and is looking in some fine form. Cameron Bruce, Aaron Davey and Colin Sylvia have been the standouts this year for the Dees in Supercoach. Jack Watts is not a SuperCoach player yet, maybe he isn’t even really a proper AFL footballer yet; eitherway, he isn’t playing this week due to illness.
By Luke
Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane
SportsBET odds: $2.40 vs. $1.60
10th vs. 5th
There have been 2 games at the Gabba and 2 games at AAMI in the last four encounters between the Lions and the Power. Ironically the home ground advantage doesn’t seem to be an advantage between these two because the away team has won on all four occasions. Brisbane are clearly in the 8 at the moment while Port Adelaide are out only by percentage, but with a percentage as low as 88%; only North Melbourne, Richmond, Fremantle and Melbourne have lower percentages.
This is a must win game for the Power if they want to push for finals because they need to be clearly in the 8 to have any chance of keeping their spot. The Lions will want a win to allow them to push for a top-four birth. Going on 2009 form you would have to say the points are going to the Lions, and given the fact that Port has not beaten the Lions at AAMI since Round 2 2005; that prediction won’t change for me.
SuperCoach watch: Jonathan Brown has scored 138pt’s and 158pt’s in his past two games against the Power.
Watch out for the likes of Simon Black and Luke Power also for the Lions.
For the Power, Chad Cornes and the Burgoyne’s like three figure scores, but with two of those players injured someone else will need to step up. Obvious choices would be Kane Cornes and Danyle Pearce.
By Ben
Richmond vs. Adelaide
SportsBET odds: $3.90 vs. $1.28
14th vs. 7th
Adelaide are going for their 6th win in a row to further solidify their spot in the eight whilst pushing for the elusive top-four birth that is still up for grabs.
The Crows have dominated the Tigers in their last 10 outings with only one game going Richmond’s way; by a point in 2006…..
On Richmond, they were pretty good in the 1st quarter against the Saints but after that, they played like a team that is in 14th place.
I can’t see this game going any other way than a win for the Crows.
SuperCoach watch: Jason Porplyzia is a potential late season gem going by his last two games where he has scored 116pt’s and 146pt’s respectively.
Save for a 46pt haul against Essendon, Michael Doughty has been scoring very well over the last 5 weeks with an 4 scores over 95pt’s and a high of 139pt’s.
Keep an eye out for 2nd game defender Jarrod Silvester who scored a very nice 94pt’s against the Saints. Not bad for a key-position defender.
By Vish
Western Bulldogs vs. Hawthorn
SportsBET odds: $1.44 vs. $2.90
3rd vs. 9th
Hawthorn supporters will be bitterly disappointed with the Hawks this year. On the back of an emphatic premiership victory last year the Hawks have only managed to scrape together a 6-7 win-loss record in 2009. The Bulldogs however have backed up their 2008 season by winning 9 of their 13 games so far.
The Hawks are coming off what will no doubt be a demoralising loss to the West Coast Eagles, while the Doggies came out on top against the Roos in what was a remarkably hard fought battle. The Western Bulldogs have looked in good form in the last month and given how the Hawks have failed to really impress this season I’m going to go with a Dogs victory this week.
SuperCoach watch: Daniel Cross has collected 30+ possessions in the last two games between these two teams, with a massive 39 in their last encounter. Lance Franklin likes kicking a bag against the Dogs, but I said the same about Brendan Fevola against the Bombers last week and he only managed 2.
I’ll be watching Brad Sewell because he has an average of 120 this season and has some good scores against the Bulldogs.
By Ben
Sydney vs. North Melbourne
SportsBET odds: $1.34 vs. $3.35
11th vs. 13th
This game looks like shaping whether the Swans will make finals this year. They sit a game and percentage outside the 8 and really need to win this game against a struggling North Melbourne side to get some confidence back following 4 straight losses. The Roos have also lost their last 4 games and consequently finals are slipping away. They sit 2 wins out of the 8 but with a percentage worse than West Coast and Richmond, it will be a long hard road and require something quite different from the Roos than we have seen thus far in 2009.
This will be a SCG game which makes me say that the points will easily go to the Swans.
SuperCoach watch: Jarrad McVeigh and Brett Kirk have both been in good form of late, and each seems to like a score against the Roos.
Brent Harvey normally scores well but having just come back from his elbow injury I wouldn’t think he could do it this week. Hamish McIntosh has been in fine form this year, and Drew Petrie has been a good target up forward so look out for those two.
By Ben
MATCH OF THE ROUND
St Kilda vs. Geelong
SportsBET odds: $2.40 vs. $1.60
1st vs. 2nd
For a more in-depth (and better) look at this game by Ben, click here to read his article.
And here were finally are. Round 14. Two teams. Undefeated. At the….err…Dome…
I’ll put it out there straight away and say that I think that Geelong will win if the Saints play the zone.
Geelong’s style of the quick fire handballs with supporting runners in tow is a noted way of dismantling the zone.
The way the Saints may find their way into this game is through their dominant forwards, fanatical pressure and Geelong’s poor finishing skills.
For me, the role of Justin Koschitzke in St Kilda’s winning run cannot be understated. If he isn’t taking contested marks, he is crashing packs and helping the crumbers in Milne and Schneider. His battle against Scarlett is crucial for the Saints.
That duel is one of many fascinating ones that will be on show; you’ve also got Dal Santo vs. Ling, Ablett vs. Jones and Riewoldt vs. Taylor and a heap more.
Can’t wait.
SuperCoach watch: Shannon freakin’ Byrnes. He has averaged an amazing (for him) 114pt’s in his last 6 games he’s played.
Paul Chapman’s run of form is less surprising given how good he has been for the last 5 years. Since returning from injury, he has an averaged 131pt’s.
I’d back Nick Riewoldt to beat Harry Taylor given that he’ll be determined to fly the flag as the skipper and due to his shocker on the Geelong defender in the Qualifying Final last year. Captain anyone?
By Vish
Fremantle vs. Carlton
SportsBET odds: $2.30 vs $1.63
15th vs. 8th
Both Carlton and Fremantle had to endure heavy losses last week against Essendon and Collingwood respectively. In the last five weeks Fremantle have lost all five matches, whereas Carlton has won two.
If their previous 9 encounters is anything to go by, the Dockers have absolutely dominated. Winning 8 of the last 9 and beating the Blues at Subiaco, Gold Coast Stadium, Etihad Stadium and Visy Park (Formally Princes Park).
This is a must win game for the Blues, they must win this match to remain in the top eight as they are just clinging onto eighth spot by percentage. For the Dockers who are in the midst of their “re-building phase” the win is as not as important, but they may want to prove they can win without star skipper Matthew Pavlich. The only thing is, in their previous 4 games with Pavlich has seen them losing.
Carlton should win this game, their midfield depth and speed should outrun Fremantle’s and they have more at stake.
SuperCoach watch: Bryce Gibbs usually dominates in these matches. He has scored a total of 232pt’s and had 48 disposals in his past two outings against Freo. Pity Heath Scotland isn’t playing given that he also has an excellent record against the Dockers.
Aaron Sandilands has, in these two teams past two outings scored 38 and 42 hit outs respectively and completely dominated the ruck contests. If you have him in your team, you would LOVE it!
By Christine
This week I’ve gone for…..
Collingwood to beat the line of 16 points against Essendon ($2.00)
Melbourne to beat West Coast outright ($2.05)
Sydney to beat North outright ($1.34)
Geelong to beat the Saints by less than 39 points ($2.30)
Adelaide to beat the line of 25 points against Richmond ($1.92)
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