The AFL season is now only a couple of weeks away and after a NAB Cup where two of the season’s favourites went all the way to the final, the anticipation couldn’t be bigger. It’s not easy to figure out at this time of the year who will still be there in September, but that’s never stopped footy fans from trying. We’re always keen to throw our two cents in, especially when it comes to who we think are contenders, and who we think are pretenders. So, with that spirit in mind, here’s my take …
THE GENUINE PREMIERSHIP CONTENDERS
Collingwood seem to be flying under the radar among all the Saints and Dogs hype. The additions of Darren Jolly and Luke Ball add a whole new dimension to their midfield, which was an area of the ground that attracted criticism at the business end of 2009. There are still a couple of minor question marks, but surely they’ll be right up there come season’s end.
St Kilda will be as hungry as ever. Ross Lyon has once again brought in a few recycled players and, knowing his track record, that alone might take them to a new level. But more importantly, the NAB Cup has given no hints of any major drop-off, which some suspected might happen.
Geelong’s pre-season didn’t go quite as smoothly. However unless they get the same injuries they had last year, you’d have to say they will still be in it. The loss of Tom Harley isn’t major when you see the new-found depth they have down back, with Josh Hunt back from injury and Marcus Drum also. A breakout year to Tom Hawkins could really throw the Cats amongst the best.
The Western Bulldogs could go either way. They could dominate all year and win the premiership, it wouldn’t surprise me to see that. They have what it takes, they’ve got a great list, and their NAB Cup was mighty impressive. But they could also drop off, especially when you look at the age of their star forwards, Barry Hall included. Injury, form and fitness hiccups are bound to come up there. The 2006 Cats show what can come of a heartbreaking finals loss mixed with a NAB Cup victory. There isn’t always a fairytale ending.
THE TOP FOUR CONTENDERS
Once you get to the top four, anything’s possible. Hawthorn look like rebounding from their horror ’09, but concerns still remain. Injuries, whilst not as bad as last year, are still an issue. They are still lacking a quality ruck division. Adding Shaun Burgoyne and Josh Gibson will help plug holes, however. The most noticeable difference though will come from players who missed a fair bit last year but are now back at full strength.
Adelaide are at risk of being this year’s Hawthorn when it comes to injuries. If it weren’t for the fact there were so many, you’d almost have to pencil them in for a top four spot. That said, there’s a lot to like about guys like Bernie Vince, Kurt Tippett and some of their kids, like Patrick Dangerfield. It’s hard to see them dropping out of the eight.
I have suspicion the hype surrounding the Brisbane Lions this year isn’t justified, but who am I to doubt Michael Voss? Here’s the thing. Having two big-name power forwards means nothing when you can’t deliver them the ball. Their midfield isn’t bad, but it needs to improve if the Lions are to move up. Remember, they already had two big-name power forwards before they got Brendan Fevola, but something they didn’t have was the ability to be a force around stoppages. But hey, it’s Voss. He knows what he’s doing, right?
THE TOP EIGHT CONTENDERS
West Coast have a lot of young talent getting to the right point of their careers to break out, which is a very dangerous thing. Guys like Mark LeCras, Chris Masten, Josh Kennedy, Brad Ebert, Tom Swift, Nick Naitanui, Eric Mackenzie et al, all have upside left in them. Throw in the return of Daniel Kerr and Dean Cox and hey, why wouldn’t they be in the mix for finals?
Carlton don’t come across as the type of side that will improve out of sight this year, but they probably won’t fall that far either. It will take some time if they are going to emerge from the Brendan Fevola trade with something of value (think the Chris Judd trade, only in reverse) but a different mentality going inside 50 – as in, something other than “kick it to Fev!” – might not turn out to be such a bad thing.
Time for a bit of a roughie now. Fremantle have a tough draw to start the year, which is a legitimate concern. However if they do ever get going, they will seriously get going. The club have a healthy mix of A-graders (like Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands) and young, emerging talent (think Stephen Hill, Nick Suban, Michael Barlow et al). If they survive those early rounds, they could surprise quite a few people.
THE ‘ONLY IF EVERYTHING GOES RIGHT…’ CONTENDERS
North Melbourne are an interesting proposition. Without last year’s injuries, they could very well push for a spot in the eight. None of Jack Ziebell, Liam Anthony, Nathan Grima and Levi Greenwood played more than 13 games in ’09, so who’s to say they can’t improve? Then there’s the new coach factor, too.
For Essendon, backing up from last year may prove a challenge. Their midfield gets unfairly criticised but this off-season, all eyes have been on the forward line, suddenly bereft of Matthew Lloyd and Scott Lucas. Mark Williams is the wildcard, but there will need to be some tall timber, which is why Jay Neagle and Scott Gumbleton are going to be important.
Sydney are staunchly against the idea of finishing in the bottom four. To arrest their slide they’ve brought in quite a lot of mature-age talent, which should be enough to do some arresting. But don’t expect it to drive them all the way to the eight.
Port Adelaide have had a really strong pre-season, which is a positive sign. The fear with Port though is that the ins this off-season (Jay Shulz, Jay Nash, Cameron Cloke, Scott Harding) don’t quite stack up next to the outs (The Burgoynes, Brendan Lade, Toby Thurstans). That said, they do have some young-ish talent capable of improvement.
THE WOODEN SPOON CONTENDERS
Beware the team with a new coach, sure, but also beware of overly-optimistic predictions when it comes to the Tigers. It will be interesting to see how they play under Damien Hardwick but if what he’s been saying about development and having a long-term plan is true, don’t expect too much.
In the NAB Cup, Melbourne’s main forward target was Liam Jurrah, who is now out for four months. Their defence ain’t bad, their midfield is at least on the right track but without anyone to kick their goals, it looks like another long year for Demon fans, as unfortunate as that sounds.
This is a guest post by Michael DiFabrizio, you can read his articles on The Roar, check out his blog Best Off Ground or follow him on Twitter.
Tags: Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon, Fremantle, Geelong, Guest Posts, Hawthorn, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide, Richmond, St Kilda, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs
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