SportsBet Odds: $2.67 vs. $1.50
14th vs. 12th
This is a game that fans on both sides have been anticipating since round 22 last season. It’s a grudge match that had a rivalry reignited last year when Matthew Lloyd performed the now infamous bump on Brad Sewell, knocking him out cold and starting a good old fashioned brawl. Consequently the Bombers lifted as they rallied behind their skipper and the Hawks fell behind. Fines were a plenty after the match and Lloyd suffered a hefty suspension (of which he only endured 1 match before retiring). This match is bound to be a rough encounter, and both teams are looking to get another win on the board after disappointing starts to the season. A key to this game will be the forward lines with Hawthorn sporting Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead, and the Bombers still blooding Michael Hurley and Scott Gumbleton. I can see Hawthorn dominating this area, while the Bombers should have the stoppages under control with David Hille and Paddy Ryder up against Brent Renouf.
Previous Encounters:
Hawthorn – 14.15 (99)
Essendon – 16.20 (116)
Hawthorn has become the first team since the Adelaide Crows in 1999 to miss out on September action the year following their premiership. The Bombers secured themselves a finals birth with a gutsy win that saw a 35 point turn around after half time to win by 17 points. The Bombers trailed by 22 points at the main break and really needed a spark. Enter Matthew Lloyd with a bump on Hawk Brad Sewell, a brawl, and a young gun on the rise. Lloyd bumped Sewell in the opening minutes of the third term and the Hawk was knocked unconcious and didn’t return to the field. The two teams then proceded to have a brawl similar to the one we saw between Richmond and Collingwood a few weeks back. The Bombers had lifted but needed a little more to get the ball rolling. Enter Michael Hurley. Hurley spent the day up forward and after the brawl sparked the Bombers he was the man who got the back in it with 4 second half goals and 2 goal assists.
Key Players for Essendon:
David Hille/Paddy Ryder – Both these players performed below average last week against the Pies, and it showed with Collingwood dominating the ruck and clearances. If these two don’t lift this week against Brent Renouf then they have some serious issues.
Scott Gumbleton – Gumby looked ok last week but he needs to lift seriously this week. He has Franklin and Roughead at the opposite end and if he can’t even try to match them on the scoreboard the Bombers could be in serious trouble.
Key Players for Hawthorn:
Luke Hodge – Hodge is a gun. With the strong possibility that Essendon could dominate the hit outs, he needs to be able to read the play really well and stop the Bombers midfield taking over.
Jarryd Roughead/LanceFranklin– Whichever player ends up at full forward will need to have a good day, and the loss of Tayte Pears for the Bombers will make that job easier for either one of them. Essendon has struggled in the past to control powerhouse forwards such as Franklin, Brendan Fevola, and Jonathan Brown so Hawthorn will be hoping that trend continues.
Prediction:
The Bombers looked flat footed and low on confidence last week, and Hawthorn has been struggling with injuries. It’s a hard one to pick but if the Bombers can respond positively and get back on track they will be too good again I think, but if they play like they did last week then the result should be similar to last week.
Teams:
Essendon
B: Heath Hocking, Dustin Fletcher, Ricky Dyson
HB: Jarrod Atkinson, Cale Hooker, Henry Slattery
C: Mark McVeigh, Jobe Watson, Brent Stanton
HF: Angus Monfries, Scott Gumbleton, Brent Prismall
F: Alwyn Davey, Michael Hurley, Sam Lonergan
Foll: Patrick Ryder, Andrew Welsh, Jason Winderlich
I/C: Courtenay Dempsey, Nathan Lovett-Murray, David Zaharakis, David Hille
Emg: Kyle Hardingham, Ben Howlett, Tyson Slattery
In: Davey, Prismall, Atkinson, Lonergan
Out: Jake Melksham, Travis Colyer, Tayte Pears (arm), Kyle Reimers (hand)
Hawthorn
B: Brent Guerra, Stephen Gilham, Thomas Murphy
HB: Ben Stratton, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Jarrod Kayler-Thomson, Liam Shiels, Jordan Lewis
HF: Cyril Rioli, Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman
F: Michael Osborne, Jarryd Roughead, Campbell Brown
Foll: Brent Renouf, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Xavier Ellis, Rick Ladson, Brendan Whitecross, Clinton Young
Emg: Garry Moss, Beau Muston, Carl Peterson
In: Renouf
Out: Carl Peterson
Tags: David Hille, Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin, Luke Hodge, Paddy Ryder, Scott Gumbleton
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“Gumby looked ok last week but he needs to lift seriously this week.”
Ben, if your hopes are all pinned on a bloke who has barely played for three years and is just finding out what the current game is all about, you’re in a bad way. It is unrealistic to expect Gumbleton to be a match winner right now (and probably all of 2010). Who know from there on.
I don’t know about other neutrals, but I’m really looking forward to this game.
Probably because I’ve got great seats and will get to see either of my Essendon or Hawthorn mates reduced to tears after the siren.