With the 2011 Brownlow Medal Count under one week away, it is important to identify who the contenders are for the most prestigious individual award in the AFL and evaluate how they have performed throughout the 2011 home and away season.
Gary Ablett (Geelong) – As the first captain of the 17th AFL clubs first season in AFL, Ablett was the Suns best player for the year and played in 20 of the clubs 22 matches.
He averaged 26.5 disposals, 11 kicks, 3.3 marks and 15.6 handballs per game. He finished leading the Suns in kicks, handballs, overall disposals, clearances and tackles.
He finished off his first year as captain of the inaugural club with 605 disposals, 304 kicks, 301 handballs, 45 marks, 133 clearances, 99 inside 50s, 62 rebound 50s and 18 goals.
Ablett came third in this year’s AFLPA most valuable player won the clubs first ever Best and Fairest ‘Club Champion’ Award. He was also selected as the only Gold Coast player in the 2011 All Australian team, named as a follower and was given the honor of being named captain of the side.
Prediction: 13th-18th
Ablett won’t be near the top of the leader board this year, contrary to most recent years. Gold Coast did not win enough games, for Ablett to come close to winning. He may score 3’s or 2’s in the Suns 3 wins, but it just won’t be enough to win Charlie this year.
SportsBet Odds: $17.00
Matthew Boyd (Western Bulldogs) – In his first time as captain of the Bulldogs, Boyd had a great season leading from the front. He was his side’s best and most consistent player and should go on to win the clubs best and fairest. He was such a ball magnet this year he collected over 30 possessions in 13 games with two over 40s.
Boyd played in all the Dogs 22 games this year, averaging 32 disposals, 18.1 kicks, 3.9 marks and 13.8 handballs. He finished first in the AFL for total disposals (701) and clearances (154), second for kicks (398) and fourth for inside 50s (115). He also took 85 marks, had 303 handballs, 75 rebound 50m and kicked 8 goals five behinds.
Boyd was selected in the 2011 All Australian side on the interchange for the first time in his career.
Prediction: 8th-12th
Boyd should score in the majority of the Dogs wins this year, as he was a ball magnet throughout the year. Should finish inside the top 10, but won’t get close to first place.
SportsBet Odds: $21.00
Adam Goodes (Sydney) – As Sydney’s co-captain this year, Goodes lead from the front and was extremely dominant and almost unstoppable at times especially when moving the footy inside the Swans forward 50. He was able to move the ball inside 50 more than 5 times on ten occasions.
Goodes played in all of the Swans 22 games this year averaging 21.3 disposals, 13.3 kicks, 6.3 marks and 7.9 handballs. Overall he was second in the AFL for inside 50s (124), collected 446 possessions, had 293 kicks, 138 marks, 173 handballs, 69 clearances, 12 rebound 50s and 36 goals.
Goodes, came forth in this year’s AFLPA most valuable player award and was voted third best captain. He also was selected in the All Australian side this year as a full forward.
Prediction: 1st-3rd
The question is, can Adam Goodes win his third Brownlow Medal? He is now second favourite to win Charlie. He should finish in the top 5, even top 3 and be the Swans highest scorer. Look out for a possible draw with Judd.
SportsBet Odds: $4.75
Chris Judd (Carlton) – The reigning Brownlow Medallist and Carlton best and fairest and continued his good form into 2011. He has been great this year and is the overriding favourite to take out Bluey for the third time.
He played all of the Blues 22 games this year averaging 26.4 disposals, 12.8 kicks, 2.9 marks and 14.4 handballs. He finished fourth in the AFL for handballs (316) and clearances (148), and collected a total of 597 possessions, had 281 kicks, 64 marks, 101 inside 50m, 28 rebound 50s and 13 goals.
Judd has already won two individual awards this year. He was awarded the AFLPA most valuable player and best captain. He was selected as vice captain in the All Australian side for 2011 as a follower.
Prediction: 1st or 2nd
Will he win his third Brownlow? As much as I don’t want Judd to win the Brownlow, it’s hard to go past the overriding favourite. Marc Murphy has also had a great year and will steal some of the 3 votes from Judd, but I think it won’t stop Judd. If not first, he will finish second. Also look out between Judd and Goodes.
SportsBet Odds: $1.92
*Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) – After handing over the captaincy last year to Luke Hodge, Mitchell has stepped up this year and been one of the Hawks best and most consistent players. He was able to amass 30+ disposals on 13 occasions include 38 (4 times, and 3 consecutively.
He played in 20 games this year, only missing one due to suspension and injury. Throughout the year he averaged 30.4 disposals, 18.0 kicks, 4.4 marks and 13.0 handballs. He finished fifth in the AFL in total disposals (622) and kicks (361). He also took 88 marks, 261 handballs, 115 clearances, 95 inside 50m, 32 rebound 50s and 11 goals.
Mitchell was for the first time in his career selected in the All Australian side this year, being named in the centre.
Prediction: 4th-6th
Mitchell collected never ending possessions throughout the year and was the Hawks best. He will finish at the top of his clubs leader board and within the top 5 or 6 for most of the night. He should finish in the middle of the top 10 by the conclusion of the evening.
*This player is ineligible to win this award after being suspended during the season.
Marc Murphy (Carlton) – After finishing third in the clubs best and fairest last year, Murphy has had a superb year for the Blues. He hasn’t been in the media spotlight like Judd, however has played just as well collecting 30+ possessions on 11 occasions.
Murphy played all 22 games for the Blues this year averaging 29 disposals, 16.2 kicks, 4.6 marks and 12.9 handballs. Overall he finished fourth in the AFL for disposals (639), had 356 kicks, 102 marks, 283 handballs, 117 clearances, 99 inside 50m, 38 rebound 50s and kicked 19 goals.
Murphy was selected in the 2011 All Australian side at half forward for the first time.
Prediction: 4th-6th
May be living in Judd’s shadow for some games this year, but also might steal votes from Judd on many occasions. He could even do what Pendlebury did last year to Swan and take enough votes away from Judd to stop him from winning. He should finish in the middle of the top 10.
SportsBet Odds: $14.00
Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood) – Continuing with his good form in 2010 that helped the Pies win the premiership, this year Pendles has been just as good. He has been Pies most consistent player for the year, winning the ANZAC Day Medal and was able to amass 30+ possessions in 13 games during the year.
He played all 22 games for the Pies this year and averaged 29.4 disposals, 14.9 kicks, 4.3 marks and 14.1 handballs. He finished the year with fifth in the AFL for handballs (311), total 639 disposals, 328 kicks, 95 marks, 111 clearances, 92 inside 50m, 27 rebound 50s and kicked 24 goals.
A few weeks ago, Pendlebury came second in this year’s AFLPA most valuable player award behind Chris Judd. He was also named in the centre in this year’s All Australian team.
Prediction: 3rd-5th
After stealing points off Swan last year and stopping him from winning, Dale Thomas and Dane Swan might do it to Pendlebury this year. Pendles should poll the most out of the three men, but it should be interesting to watch how these three vote against each other. Pendlebury has been the most consistent however and will finish inside the top 5. If a Pie were to steal it from Judd it would be this man or Swan.
SportsBet Odds: $7.50
Matthew Priddis (West Coast) – Priddis has played a big role this year in climbing the Eagles from the bottom to fourth on the ladder this season. He has been very dominant in the middle for the Eagles and should win the club’s best and fairest, having collected over 25 disposals on 16 occasions.
He played in 22 games this season and averaging 26.5 disposals, 11 kicks, 3.3 marks and 15.6 handballs. He finished leading the AFL in handballs (334) and finished the year with 242 kicks, 73 marks, 137 clearances, 80 inside 50s, 24 rebound 50s and 7 goals.
Prediction: 8th – 15th
Priddis could be a bit of a dark horse, considering how well West Coast has done this year. He has been dominant in the midfield for the Eagles this season and should top their leader board and should finish inside the top 10.
SportsBet Odds: $81.00
Dane Swan (Collingwood) – After winning the Pies best and fairest the third consecutive time alongside a premiership medallion last year, Swan has had a great year for the Pies, especially in the second half of the year. He averaged just over 34 disposals in his last 11 matches and reached a season high personal best 45 in Round 19, against Essendon.
He played in all but one game for the Pies this season, instead travelling to Arizona for the week for some high altitude training to help his injury. He averaged 20 kicks, 5.6 marks, 11.7 handballs and 32 disposals in his 21 games.
He finished leading the AFL in kicks (419) and third in total disposals (665). He also finished the year with a total 117 marks, 246 handballs, 123 clearances, 109 inside 50s, 38 rebound 50s and 30 goals.
Swan was named in this year’s All Australian side at half forward for the third consecutive year.
Prediction: 5th-8th
Swan isn’t the favourite this year, and will have no pressure on him, so maybe he will win it? (Wishful thinking, I think). Pendlebury and Thomas played just as well as Swan this year. He will score 3’s especially in the second half of the year, but will be fighting for those points with Pendlebury and Thomas. I’ve got him finishing possibly within the top 5, because of the big scores he should get from rounds 14-23. If a Pie were to steal it from Judd it would be this man or Pendles.
SportsBet Odds: $14.00
*Dale Thomas (Collingwood) – After coming of the best year of his career last year with a premiership medal and third in the Pies best and fairest, Daisy this year has had another stellar year. He was standout player in many of the Pies wins this year and in the first 10 rounds averaged just fewer than 26 possessions.
Thomas played in 19 games for the Pies this season, missing a couple due to suspension, which rules him out of being able to win the Brownlow.
He averaged a career high 25 disposals, 16.3 kicks, 6.2 marks, 8.8 handballs this year and finished the season with a total of 477 disposals, 309 kicks, 118 marks, 168 handballs, 64 clearances, 77 inside 50m, 40 rebound 50m and 13 goals.
Thomas was named in the 2011 All Australian side in the centre for the first time in his career.
Prediction: 8th – 11th
Thomas will score really well in the first half of the season and will be close to the top of the leader board. He will not score as well in the second half of the year however, as Swan and and Pendlebury will be fighting it out there.
*This player is ineligible to win this award after being suspended during the season.
Tags: 2011 Brownlow Medal, Adam Goodes, Chris Judd, Dale Thomas, Dane Swan, Gary Ablett, Marc Murphy, Matthew Boyd, Matthew Priddis, Sam Mitchell, Scott Pendlebury
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If people are after a good roughie, have a look at Nick Dal Santo.
My predicted 1, 2, 3
1. Judd
2. Goodes
3. Ablett
No Collingwood in the top three even though Swan and Pendles. had very good years because they steal votes off each other too much.
No way Ablett is going to score that many points to reach top 5. Suns won 3 games this year.
Are you saying you think Ablett will score 2 or 1 votes in each of their losing games?
I could see Ablett in the top 5.
Umpires love him.
Expect a lot of 1-2 vote games.