Richmond vs. Western Bulldogs
15th vs. 3rd
SportsBET odds: $4.55 vs. $1.22
The AFL must be thanking Richmond for creating interest in what would have otherwise been a fizzer in their premier time-slot. Richmond has a ‘lame duck’ coach to play for and something to prove. The Bulldogs would like to keep distance between themselves and fourth as July will be a very challenging month against fellow top 4 hopefuls.
All signs point to a Bulldogs victory and they appear to be building their year for an assault on the top 4. They are a 2-3 goal per quarter better side than the Tigers. Richmond finally won but it was against a luckless Fremantle. The effort and desire for the contest is there, but poor skills continually let them down.
The Bulldogs turned it on in the first half against the Swans and if they can even come close to replicating that, then they will torch the Tigers. Richmond have shown promise and it appears as though the introduction of Cousins and Cotchin added more poise to the entire team. Richmond played their best 20 minutes of football in the 3rd quarter against the Dockers. The notable difference being the weaker opposition and the large expanses of Subiaco which suit Richmond midget based running game plan.
The Deledio/Picken match-up will be crucial. Picken has been super-impressive in his debut year and Deledio played his best match of the season last week; however, he rarely copes well with a hard tag. If Deledio doesn’t perform, then they have no chance.
Last week was for Terry, this week the Dogs are just too strong.
Bulldogs by 45 for me.
SuperCoach watch: Shaun Higgins injury concerns remain; it may be trade time if he can no longer run out games.
Trent Cotchin does not waste the ball so may be a worthy pick-up.
Callan Ward has shown promising form and never takes a backward step, which will serve him well against the physically weak Tigers.
By Jon B
North Melbourne vs. St Kilda
12th vs. 1st
SportsBET odds: $7.00 vs $1.11Most people have this game down as an easy St Kilda win; they are basing that on St Kilda’s form so far this year and the experience difference between these two sides particularly in the midfield however I’m not so sure.
St Kilda haven’t been playing as convincing football the last three weeks as they were at years beginning. Although they have still got the job done they have given the opposition a sniff. The Kangaroos are a young side; young sides can be dangerous when given a sniff.
Whilst I don’t believe this game is going to be an easy one for St Kilda, I do think they’ll get the job done, their forward line should beat their opponents; in the midfield the young Kangaroos might get bullied by their bigger and more experienced opponents and St Kilda’s backline is the stingiest in the AFL. The only area the Kangaroos have an edge in is the ruck; due to Michael Gardiner’s sillly act.
SuperCoach watch: Look for Hamish McIntosh to continue his good form this week, as St Kilda’s number one ruckman has been suspended.
Lenny Hayes is in great form and will relish pushing around the young Kangaroo midfielders.
The Kangaroos have said they will have to make this game a scrap so be cautious of choosing some of the more outside players from either team as captain.
By James
MATCH OF THE ROUND
Brisbane vs. Carlton
4th vs. 5th
SportsBET odds: $1.65 vs. $2.30
Brisbane have managed to find themselves, quite deservedly in the top-four after winning four of their last five games. Their smashing against the Cats’ seems to have been the catalyst for this run of form which I’d bank on continuing.
Carlton scraped a 41pt victory against a poor West Coast outfit. It was more of the same when Carlton won with the usual likes of Judd, Stevens, Fevola, Gibbs and Murphy playing head and shoulders above the other Carlton players to get them the four points. This is probably the first game that we’ll properly be able to see how the loss of Jarrad Waite will impact on Carlton and with Bradshaw and Brown up forward, I’d say that it will impact them in a big way.
SuperCoach watch: Jed Adcock and Mitch Clark have been in excellent form over the past few weeks with both playing better than their $400 000ish price tags suggest. Jonathan Brown who is a fair bargain at $414 900 has scored 110+pt’s in the past three encounters against the Blues.
Expect Chris Judd, Stevens, Murphy and Gibbs to score highly. Chris Judd in particularly always plays well against Brisbane for some reason. Probably because he plays well in 9 out 10 games though…..Definite choice for your captain if you have him.
By Vish
Port Adelaide vs. Fremantle
10th vs. 14th
SportsBET odds: $1.17 vs. $5.25
Well the heat’s on Port again after being comprehensively beaten by the Pies who just ran harder than Port. Luckily they come up against Freo who had to deal with 4 injuries from their game against Richmond. It was a spirited performance by Freo but they were just not good enough which I’d expect them to be again this week.
SuperCoach watch: Chad Cornes looks to be injured for 4-6 weeks so it’s time to trade if you’ve got him. Nathan Krakouer was dropped again after one game back against Collingwood. At $363 400, he could get you a bit of cash given that he’s not looking like a keeper.
Stephen Hill got a nice head to the hip whilst his feet were planted on the ground against Richmond so he may miss even though he has been named. Even if he plays, it could be around the time to upgrade and use the cash you would have made on him.
Essendon vs. Adelaide8th vs. 11th SportsBET odds: $1.92 vs. $1.92The Bombers were taught a tough lesson last week against arguably the top team in the competition, but will be looking to bounce back the by way they have from all their losses so far this season. Adelaide on the other hand are coming off two good wins and look to be hitting some good mid-season form. Each side is 5-5 from the first ten rounds, and only 1.22% separates them on the table. The Dons’ are yet to lose two in a row this season, and of the 6 other teams with the same amount of points they have played 4 with victories against 3 of those. Adelaide will be looking to continue their good form and have another win away from AAMI.
Since 2002 these teams have only met at Etihad Stadium 3 times from 10 meetings, and in their latest encounter at this venue in round 20, last season the Crows came away with the points convincingly. This game has the potential to be season defining for both teams. A victory for the Dons would continue their wins against the middle teams, and keeps them from losing two in a row yet again. Whilst a win for the Crows would continue their good streak and bring their win-loss record in favour of the wins for the first time since round 5.
Each team has roughly the same overall stats for the season which means this could be a very good game. Evenly matched stats wise, evenly matched ladder wise, evenly matched in recent results (2 each since the start of 2007). I’ll send the points to the Bombers at home, but it should be close and could go either way.
SuperCoach watch: Scott Thompson has scored over 130 points in the last two encounters between the two teams so expect him to score well. Simon Goodwin has also scored well with scores of 111 and 155 in the last two encounters. For the Bombers, expect big games from Brent Stanton, Jobe Watson and Andrew Lovett after quiet games last week. Stanton in particular likes playing Adelaide with three scores in excess of 110 in the past four encounters, and could be looking at finding some touch again after struggling with tags the last few weeks.
By Ben
Hawthorn vs. Sydney
7th vs. 8th
SportsBET odds: $1.45 vs. $2.85
The battle of the underperformers. A loss won’t be the end of the world for both teams but a win would be as helpful as anything, not for the premiership points, but for the confidence it will give the team. Even though Sydney got smashed last week, I’m going to pick them for the victory against the Hawks. The Swans record against Hawthorns is excellent, winning 6 of their last 7 games going back to 2004. The Swans sounded like they were really disappointed in their effort against the Bulldogs and I’d expect them to come out pretty strongly against Hawthorn.
SuperCoach watch: Luke Hodge has been named for the game but given that the split round is next week, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t given a bit longer.
Get on Beau Muston unless you want to pay $200 000+ in the next week.
Cyril Rioli has been continuing his form of pulling out the big numbers in his team’s losses scoring 120pt’s in an excellent performance against Adelaide.
Adam Goodes, Ryan O’Keefe, Jude Bolton and Brett Kirk have been great for the Swans particularly in the past few weeks. If you have Adam Goodes in particular, I’d look at making him your captain. He scored 183pt’s in round two this year and he likes playing against Hawthorn with an average of 121pts since SuperCoach started in 2005.
Sydney at $2.85 seems too good to be true given thier excellent record against Hawthorn. Added to the fact that Sydney have been playing pretty well after they have lost in the previous week gives me a fair bit of confidence with the bet.
By Vish
West Coast vs. Geelong
13th vs. 2nd
SportsBET odds: $7.15 vs. $1.11
Even with injured Geelong players, you can only see this game going one way. Taylor, Harley are out with Stokes, Corey and Chapman named as possible inclusions. West Coast have been very disappointing in their past two very winnable games against the Pies and Carlton, but this game will be infinitely harder than those two games. Geelong has been beating teams up with ease and that should continue in a big way on Sunday afternoon.
SuperCoach watch: Priddis is back for those that have him.
West Coast give up massive SuperCoach points scores, so if you have a gun Geelong player, consider them as captains for this week.
By Vish
Melbourne vs. Collingwood
6th vs. 16th
SportsBET odds: $1.22 vs. $1.40
Queen’s Birthday at the MCG, Monday June 8th 2009, the annual ‘blockbuster’ match between the Melbourne Football Club and the Collingwood Football Club.
The stakes are high for Melbourne; they have only had the one win for the season, over Richmond, but have given all their heart in their last 7 games. They have faced all four preliminary finalists from last year in the past 7 matches and have made them competitive games. Maybe this will be the perfect time for the Dees to break free, and gain revenge on the Magpies after losing to them by 53 points in Round 2, earlier this year.
Collingwood have had a bumpy and in-consistent season thus far. Some games have shown brilliance and others have been dull. The dull games were caused by the lack of forward targets, many injuries and the team simply being dominated by stronger sides. The brilliance on the other hand, showed a powerful Pies outfit, with hard tackling, running and good forward targets. The Pies have had two good consecutive wins against the Eagles at Subiaco and Port Adelaide at the MCG, they seem to be back on track for the year leading onto the Split Round and the welcoming back of key players last week seemed to lift the team, who are now back in the top eight and are now vying for a top 4 position.
The last 4 years when these two teams have battled they have won 2 games apiece. It seems anything can happen on this annual match. The last time they played the Dees got thumped. For the Pies; Dane Swan stood out with 33 possessions and was assisted by Alan Didak (29 possessions) and Scott Pendlebury (26 possessions). John Anthony contributed to the win kicking 4 goals. For the Dees; Aaron Davey and Cameron Bruce were the standouts with 31 and 31 possessions respectively.
Melbourne has improved immensely since its opening 3 rounds of the season and is being a competitive team. Last week I did say it would not surprise me if the Dees beat the Pies on Queens Birthday, but Collingwood’s solid performance last week against Port Adelaide showed the Pies strengths. The Pies have found some good form leading into mid-year and should beat the Dees for the second times this year.
SuperCoach watch: Dane Swan, where do I start? 48 possessions last week against Port and was unstoppable with 166 points. He averages 113.10 Supercoach Points for the year. In his last
Jack Grimes had a very solid game last week against flag favourites St.Kilda scoring 110 points his highest for the year. His game has lifted and lifted this year; look out for another good performance from this defender.
Jack Watts was the draft’s number one draft pick. The 18-year-old will play his debut game for the Dees on the big stage. He is a young forward and worth $174,200 in Supercoach. Keep an eye on this one; if the hype is anything to go by, this guys a keeper.
By Christine