SportsBet Odds: $1.15 vs $5.75
3rd vs. 14th
Earlier in the year this could have been a great match up as the Saints were struggling for form, now however the Saints have rediscovered the confidence and form that saw them finish 2009 as minor premiers.
This match will be a good test for the young Demons who are on the right path to becoming one of the better clubs in the league over the next few years. (more…)
Current Ladder Position: 13th
Flag odds $201.00
13th-15th Melbourne do not want to be seen to be bottoming out any more and with Gold Coast stealing all the draft picks next year, you can’t blame them. Melbourne want to win more matches than they did last year… you’d hope so… but won’t say what their target is. Melbourne will push a lot of teams this year and they will win more than 4 games, but how many more? I’d say they could easily have won 6 last year if they weren’t tanking, so you would think that they would want to win 7 or 8 games. Wins against Fremantle and Richmond are keys to make making that happen. That many wins will normally land you 13th or 14th on the ladder.See the preview here. (more…)
Everybody is surely sick to death of the comparison between Nic Naitanui and Jack Watts, so lets compare two number two draft picks that are a year apart; Jack Trengove and Nic Naitanui. It’s very hard to compare a midfielder and a ruckman but I’m going to give it a shot. (more…)
SportsBet Odds: $2.06 vs. $1.80
9th vs. 2th
Melbourne are coming off three wins for the first time since 2006. Melbourne are only out of the eight on percentage. North on the other hand are coming off a win against the 2008 premiers and look to be challenging for the eight this year. It seems to be a real lower middle of the table fight. I don’t think that’s the case. North has only been beaten by quality sides; Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Sydney. I would expect Melbourne to kick a few goals against the North defence on the rebound like they did last week. What does stack in North’s favour is that Melbourne has not won at Etihad Stadium since round 19, 2007. They have lost by over 50 pts on the last two occasions. Last time 16,594 people showed up, hopefully more will turn up this time (more…)
Melbourne – 15.13 (103)
Brisbane – 7.11 (53)
Oh my Jebus would be an understatement and that’s just Travis Johnstone. Melbourne 50 points the better of Brisbane in a crazily easy win. The Dees were just more efficient at moving the ball forward and scoring from inside 50s. The game stats would have you believe that it was an even game, but the scoreboard disagreed. Melbourne came out firing and kept Brisbane to just two goals in the first. The Demons hit the gas in the second kicking five goals to just one. Brown was being well held by James Frawley, looked underdone and limped from the ground after the final siren. Brisbane looked pretty flat after half time. From that point on Melbourne cruised home for the win, after a little bit of a scare late in the third, like a quality side would. Brisbane should be very displeased with their performance after such a terrific opening 4 rounds. Melbourne go three in a row and slot in to the eight. Who would have thought it? (more…)
Remember to check out our other SuperCoach posts here.
When you are building a SuperCoach team you need some value players. Some players that aren’t going to break the bank, play some games and hopefully score you lots of points and go up in value. Draftees can be real cash cows (they have a high profit margin) because they start off cheap and if they get a few games they are likely to go up in value. It’s important for your success in SuperCoach that you pick some good cash cows that you can trade in later in the season for a gun player or two.
Jack Trengove
Midfielder, Melbourne, 174k
Trengove has been impressive at the Demons’ training this pre-season posting near best times in the yo-yo test (similar to the beep test). Trengove has overcome a hamstring strain that he suffered last year and has negotiated a modified program and is now with the main group training. As number two draft pick he is a shoe-in to pick for SuperCoach. I am pretty sure he will play round one injuries permitting.
Tom Scully
Midfielder, Melbourne, 179k
The first pick for Melbourne in last year’s draft and is a great prospect for SuperCoach this year. Just like Trengove he has been on a modified program but looks good to play round one. Scully is a great footballer and like Trengove has elite running ability. He should play round one and his stocks will definitely rise through the team. You can’t really afford not to select Trengove and Scully this year in SuperCoach.
Bradley Sheppard
West Coast, Defender, 149k
There is a shortage of defenders that went high in the draft so if you are after a cheap defender you will probably want to pick Sheppard in SuperCoach this year. After playing in the WAFL last year he should be used to the bigger bodies and play well in 2010. Sheppard has been named in the squad to play Essendon in the NAB Cup on Friday, so look out for him there.
Daniel Menzel
Geelong, Defender, 99k
Menzel is really a utility but backs are the hardest cash cows to come by in this year’s SuperCoach. Selected at number 17 he was the last player picked in the first round. A bargain price of $99,200 for Menzel ensures that he will be picked by a few coaches. It still remains to be seen if Menzel is going to be picked to play, so think about other players if Geelong don’t pick him for round one.
Max Gawn
Melbourne, Ruckman, 94k
The only reason I think that you should even consider Gawn is because Melbourne’s ruck stocks are so poor. The only fit ruckman that Melbourne has at the Moment is Stephan Martin and he is more of a tall utility than a ruckman. Normally I wouldn’t suggest a first year ruckman because they normally don’t get good until about their 3rd season or until they are over 21.
John Butcher
Port Adelaide, Forward, 144k
At 197cm, Butcher is a genuine tall forward. He has great agility and a great mark. He is one of the best, if not the best key position player in the draft. Port got a bit of a bargain; only using pick 8 on him. No word on round one yet but due to Port’s lack of tall forwards I would be tipping he does play if fit.
Andrew Moore
Port Adelaide, Forward, 139k
Moore is a medium forward with good agility. He played well in the Championships for Vic Metro. There is a great synergy that you can create in your team by selecting two players from the same club in to the same position because if one doesn’t get selected then the other is much more likely too. By selecting two Port players you are actually reducing your risk in the majority of cases. You never know if Port are going to have a good year or not anyway.
Some others for consideration:
Dustin Martin: Richmond, Midfielder, 169k. If you want another bargain midfielder then pick Martin. He wasn’t included in more detail because of Scullgove.
Anthony Morabito: Fremantle, Midfielder, 164k. There are plenty of midfielders to choose from this year.
Gary Rohan: Sydney, Forward or Midfielder, 154k. I would only select him as a forward because of the ease it is to get cash cows in the middle of the ground. He could prove to be inconsistent. Rohan doesn’t get that much leather.
There has been much talk about who Melbourne are going to take at number one in the 2009 NAB AFL Draft. Although the order of number one and number two makes no physical difference, as both one and two will be going to the Demons, AFL commentators and observers will be interested in the order they are drafted. The order does, however, matter to those to be drafted at one and two; who will most likely be Tom Scully and Jack Trengove, it may also show the direction that Melbourne are taking and possibly who they think can handle all the pressure of the tag of ‘number one draft pick’. The media probably won’t place as much emphasis on the tag of ‘number one’ because of Melbourne’s dual picks. To some extend they will end up sharing the crown of being the top duo of 2009.
Firstly I will explain why the notion that Melbourne will draft somebody higher than somebody else purely on the basis them handling the mantle better is ridiculous. AFL Football clubs are becoming more and more involved in sports psychology and making sure that their players are in peak mental fitness as well as physical fitness. This enables the clubs to better support stars of the game and make them focused on what they have to do and not what the media are saying. Notwithstanding that the top two draftees, know as Jam Scullgove, both have good heads on their shoulders. The idea that Scully cannot handle the pressure of being number one as well as Trengove is almost laughable. You just have to look at Scully’s football CV to see that he has no problem with the big stage. He was captain of Vic Metro and handled the pressure very well. If you have seen Scully speak you would appreciate that he knows what he is doing and understands how the media operate.
If Melbourne wanted to be seen as a very professional club they would draft Scully at number one because he doesn’t drink alcohol. That’s not to say the Trengove is unprofessional, just that Scully takes it to another level. If Melbourne want to look like a tougher club they will be looking at getting Trengove, who loves getting the ball from under a pack and takes a strong mark.
Trengove has said that he expects that Scully is going to be number one because “he’s an awesome player” and has no shortcomings. I think both players would love the opportunity to be number one. Scully and Trengove have worked very hard to be as good as they are and their goal after their seasons ended would to be drafted as high as possible by impressing the clubs as much as possible. Although Trengove skipped draft camp to train for a grand final and Scully was too injured to be measured in draft camp, they would have been looking to impress in interviews and in Trengove’s case, in the grand final
Not that any of this really matters outside of crazed Melbourne fans and football pundits, of which I am both (or at least pretend to be the latter), Tom Scully deserves to go at number one because I believe he is the better player now and will be in the future.
Jack Trengove
Age: 17
Statistic averages for far in the Under 18 Championships:
|
Team |
South Australia |
|
|
Matches |
5 |
|
|
Kicks |
14.4 |
|
|
Kicking Efficiency % |
70.8 |
|
|
Handballs |
8.4 |
|
|
Disposals |
25.2 |
|
|
Disposal Efficiency % |
71.9 |
|
|
Marks |
4.2 |
|
|
Contested Possessions |
8.8 |
|
|
Uncontested Possessions |
13.6 |
|
|
Clearances |
3.8 |
|
|
Tackles |
3.0 |
|
|
Goals |
1.0 |
|
|
Behinds |
0.2 |
|
Position: Inside/Outside Midfielder
History:
Jack Trengove is a tough, fit (15.4 beep test) and determined midfielder who is currently captaining the South Australian under 18 side. He is a consistent performer and is certain to go in the first round of the NAB 2009 AFL Draft. He is even being talked up as a ‘smokey’ for the number one selection behind Tom Scully.
Trengove has shown an ability to get the hard ball on numerous occasions but importantly can use the football well by foot- often sneaking forward for a goal. In fact that is one of the traits that has him in contention for the number one draft pick, Trengove can rotate forward and set up play when the ball hits the ground or use his strong over head marking to gain possession before it does.
A good draft camp is required for him to knock Scully off number one draft pick favoritism but I’d be stunned if Trengove doesn’t go in the top five picks.
Further Reading
A local paper article- Views on Trengove by some clubs included
SANFL Website Article- Talking about Trengove’s first game.
Daily Telegraph Article- Talking about Trengove’s chances of being the number one draft pick.
Jason McCartney’s View- High performance coach.
Read about other 2009 AFL Draftees including Tom Scully, John Butcher and Matthew Panos
There are constantly questions in football about whether teams are tanking or not. There is quite a lot of evidence that it does occur. Carlton was almost certainly tanking in the last game of the year in 2007; against Melbourne. The Blues were dragging players who kicked goals and played some shocking football on that day. Their defence was almost non-existent letting the deplorable Demons score 139.
Was this the right thing to do? Morally it probably isn’t but practically the loss got Carlton the priority pick; Matthew Kreuzer. Had Melbourne lost that game, they could have picked up Nick Naitanui as well as Jack Watts in the 2008 draft because they would have qualified by having fewer than 16.5 premiership points in two consecutive seasons.
It seems inescapable for a supporter not to think of the first pick of the draft rather than winning one game extra. It was clearly worthwhile to Carlton getting Kreuzer into their ranks, as he is proving to be a very good player for them. If a team has in the previous year finished with four losses or less it must look pretty appealing to stay down next year, especially when you don’t show form early in the year.
There are many ways of managing the tank’; the most widely used method is the selection table. They select a team that will clearly not give them the best chance of winning the game. This is commonly known as ‘list-management’ which makes it sound less dodgy. This process often involves playing first gamers and out of form players. You can also ‘rest’ players and pretend players are injured. The advantage of this method is that the team can still have the appearance of trying hard on the field and still try to win, but they just do not have the talent to win the game.
Another way is to tell all or some key-players not to try so hard for certain games when they are in front. This has the advantage of being very effective for them losing the game but will probably get the players and the club harshly treated by the AFL.
There is always the old rest the good players on the bench routine which works quite well but is obvious and looks really dodgy. The coach could also make poor match-ups on purpose to limit the team’s effectiveness. There are clearly heaps of ways a team can tank’.
Melbourne find themselves in a difficult position with two very winnable games left in the season (Richmond, MCG; Fremantle, MCG) and they can only win one of them if they are going to try and take the priority pick. They are in the strange situation where they might not finish bottom because of Fremantle’s awfulness and possible tanking. If Fremantle finish on the bottom, which looks likely, Melbourne will probably only get pick number two if they don’t tank’ , however they will get picks one and three if they do.
There is also a very high probability that Melbourne can’t win 5 games even if they tried. Interestingly Melbourne plays Fremantle at the MCG in round 20, which could be the battle of the tanking, akin to that of Carlton vs. Melbourne in 2007. The problem is that Melbourne will probably beat the Tigers in round 18 as they did in round 4 and then have 4 wins for the season. Fremantle are not playing well at the moment and Melbourne, who is playing alright, beat them at the MCG last time in an inspirational match for Demons supporters.
Is it worth the priority pick to having a losing or cheating culture at the club? Surely one game does not make a whole club’s culture. I would not be surprised if Davey was suddenly under an injury cloud and that there was suddenly a youth focus at the Demons come round 20. They may even tank’ for round 18 to avoid the Fremantle match danger and 19 in preparation for the round 20 match if they win a game against Richmond.
Draft picks are very valuable in this year’s draft as Gold Coast are coming into the frame next year and will have most of the high selections. This year becomes the most valuable draft for a few years at least; until the uncomprimised drafts finish, which probably will not be until Western Sydney is all set up.
Tom Scully, John Butcher and Jack Trengove are likely prospects in this coming draft and many expect one of them to join whichever team recieves the number one pick this year. Scully is an inside midfielder that goes without alcohol (a testimant to his professionalism) and Scully is also capable of winning the ball outside largely due to his ability to read the play well. Butcher is a 197cm key position player who can play both forward and back, he is seen as a natural footballer. Trengove is a workaholic good sized midfielder from South Australia. Importantly for Demon fans two of these could potentially be picked up if they win 4 or less games.
As a Melbourne supporter I am fundamentally torn between seeing my team win now and win in the future. Morally I am against tanking. I’m not sure on how much it affects club culture but it can’t be good for it. Losing one match is not the end of the world, but losing the will or the intensity to win doesn’t come and go week in week out.
The AFL have made it so appealing for clubs to tank’, they have created this environment for supporters, which is clearly not optimal. Fans should not be going for the opposition team, it’s just not cricket… I mean football.
The tanking methodology seems to be working well for Carlton; they are coming, or so I hear.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_pick
