SportsBet Odds: $3.70 vs. $1.28
12th vs. 5th
North Melbourne is in an interesting position half way through the season. They have managed five wins, and sit 12th on the ladder right now. One interesting point to note is that North have a percentage of just 75.79, albeit not help by the hiding at the hands of the Saints, which means only Richmond have a worse percentage than them. (more…)
SportsBet Odds: $1.20 vs. $4.60
6th vs. 14th
Last week both these teams learnt exactly what was required to be a top 4 team and a genuine premiership threat. The Blues got a taste of exactly what Hawthorn is capable of and the Eagles learnt that you can never let a side like St Kilda off the hook.
Both teams will be looking to bounce back this week and will believe they are a realistic chance of winning this clash. (more…)
Port Adelaide – 14.8 (92)
Carlton – 17.16 (118)
Carlton have continued their impressive form with a 47 point turn-around from the 3rd quarter to beat Port Adelaide at AMMI stadium by 26 points.
Carlton’s willingness to work hard for the entire 4 quarters was the standout in a high-intensity and entertaining game full of momentum swings. (more…)
SportsBet odds: $1.85 vs. $2.00
6th vs. 7th
In a damn hard game to tip, Carlton travel to AMMI Stadium to take on an in-form Port Adelaide.
Both teams are travelling well with Port getting over Essendon in another come from behind game, and Carlton got over their big loss to Collingwood the week before to absolutely smash the Saints in an extremely impressive performance which showcased their pace on Monday night.
On the selection front, Port have lost Tredrea for a few months which is no doubt a loss, but a loss that can well be offset by Daniel Motlop’s return from last week.
Carlton only has nominal ins.
I can see this being an entertainingly close game. (more…)
SportsBet Odds: $4.50 vs. $1.21
7th vs. 4th
Carlton host Geelong at the MCG this round and will be hoping to continue the form showed against the Crows last round. The face however a Geelong team that dismantled Port Adelaide in a very dominant performance at Skilled Stadium. Carlton welcomed back Chris Judd and his impact was felt from the outset and will be looked upon again this week. The Carlton forward line faces a big challenge against a very experienced Geelong back six and it will be very interesting to see how they perform. (more…)
The first game of the 2010 season will see Richmond looking for a good start as opposed to what happened 12 months ago against the same opponent. Richmond notched up a win in a NAB Challenge game against Geelong but still looked a long way off after their last match. Carlton struggled to put consistent form together and finally get to show how they will play without Brendan Fevola’s goal kicking power. (more…)
SportBet odds: $1.92 vs. $1.92
5th vs. 8th
This game is considered to be a clash that will provide an opponent for an easy game next week.
It will be good to see if either team can prove this notion wrong, but given the shocking game that Carlton played last week and the injuries sustained by Brisbane from the past two weeks, it may be a stretch.
At the very least, this game will be a good peak into future finals series.
Previous Encounters
Round 11, 2009
Brisbane Lions 16.10 (106)
Carlton 16.16 (112)
Carlton has defeated Brisbane in a close encounter at the Gabba. It was the story of the key forwards with Fevola up one end kicking 8 and an at time wasteful Jonathon Brown kicking 4 goals 5 behinds. The game was in the balance all night but a rampaging Brisbane just ran out of time in the end. All the likely suspects were there for the Blues with Judd and Murphy both having an impact on the game.
…Read more…
Round 2, 2009
Carlton – 18.11 (119)
Brisbane Lions – 15.10 (100)
Key players for Brisbane
Jonathan Brown – If Brisbane are going to win it is important that Brown and/or Bradshaw fire, the good news for Brisbane is both have caused troubles for the Carlton backline already this year.
Changes
In: Merrett, Bradshaw
Out: Lachlan Henderson, James Hawksley
Key players for Carlton
Brendan Fevola – The competitions leading goal scorer is as dangerous as anyone and a focused performance from ‘The Shag’ will have Carlton half way towards a victory. Like the Lions forwards, Fevola has already performed when these two teams have met this year and if he does so again it could spell the end of the Lions season.
Likely match-up: Daniel Merrett
Chris Judd – The Blues captain is a crucial element in any Carlton win but if they are going to win this game, Judd’s finals experience could prove telling in steering his young team-mates in the right direction. I’d love to see a head to head clash for this one but it’s unlikely.
Likely match-up: Luke Power/Entire Brisbane team
Matthew Kreuzer – Both teams ruckmen have shown they can turn on some great form but if Kreuzer can get on top in the ruck and sneak forward for a couple goals then the Blues midfield should be able to take care of the rest.
Likely match-up: Mitch Clark
Changes
In: Cloke, Betts, Garlett, Grigg
Out: Steven Browne, Chris Johnson, Setanta O’hAilpin, Chris Yarran
Prediction
Opinion is divided down the middle on this one. Carlton has a healthy inexperienced side, who were embarrassed last week. Brisbane has an injury riddled side with more experience and are coming off a comfortable win last week.
There are constantly questions in football about whether teams are tanking or not. There is quite a lot of evidence that it does occur. Carlton was almost certainly tanking in the last game of the year in 2007; against Melbourne. The Blues were dragging players who kicked goals and played some shocking football on that day. Their defence was almost non-existent letting the deplorable Demons score 139.
Was this the right thing to do? Morally it probably isn’t but practically the loss got Carlton the priority pick; Matthew Kreuzer. Had Melbourne lost that game, they could have picked up Nick Naitanui as well as Jack Watts in the 2008 draft because they would have qualified by having fewer than 16.5 premiership points in two consecutive seasons.
It seems inescapable for a supporter not to think of the first pick of the draft rather than winning one game extra. It was clearly worthwhile to Carlton getting Kreuzer into their ranks, as he is proving to be a very good player for them. If a team has in the previous year finished with four losses or less it must look pretty appealing to stay down next year, especially when you don’t show form early in the year.
There are many ways of managing the tank’; the most widely used method is the selection table. They select a team that will clearly not give them the best chance of winning the game. This is commonly known as ‘list-management’ which makes it sound less dodgy. This process often involves playing first gamers and out of form players. You can also ‘rest’ players and pretend players are injured. The advantage of this method is that the team can still have the appearance of trying hard on the field and still try to win, but they just do not have the talent to win the game.
Another way is to tell all or some key-players not to try so hard for certain games when they are in front. This has the advantage of being very effective for them losing the game but will probably get the players and the club harshly treated by the AFL.
There is always the old rest the good players on the bench routine which works quite well but is obvious and looks really dodgy. The coach could also make poor match-ups on purpose to limit the team’s effectiveness. There are clearly heaps of ways a team can tank’.
Melbourne find themselves in a difficult position with two very winnable games left in the season (Richmond, MCG; Fremantle, MCG) and they can only win one of them if they are going to try and take the priority pick. They are in the strange situation where they might not finish bottom because of Fremantle’s awfulness and possible tanking. If Fremantle finish on the bottom, which looks likely, Melbourne will probably only get pick number two if they don’t tank’ , however they will get picks one and three if they do.
There is also a very high probability that Melbourne can’t win 5 games even if they tried. Interestingly Melbourne plays Fremantle at the MCG in round 20, which could be the battle of the tanking, akin to that of Carlton vs. Melbourne in 2007. The problem is that Melbourne will probably beat the Tigers in round 18 as they did in round 4 and then have 4 wins for the season. Fremantle are not playing well at the moment and Melbourne, who is playing alright, beat them at the MCG last time in an inspirational match for Demons supporters.
Is it worth the priority pick to having a losing or cheating culture at the club? Surely one game does not make a whole club’s culture. I would not be surprised if Davey was suddenly under an injury cloud and that there was suddenly a youth focus at the Demons come round 20. They may even tank’ for round 18 to avoid the Fremantle match danger and 19 in preparation for the round 20 match if they win a game against Richmond.
Draft picks are very valuable in this year’s draft as Gold Coast are coming into the frame next year and will have most of the high selections. This year becomes the most valuable draft for a few years at least; until the uncomprimised drafts finish, which probably will not be until Western Sydney is all set up.
Tom Scully, John Butcher and Jack Trengove are likely prospects in this coming draft and many expect one of them to join whichever team recieves the number one pick this year. Scully is an inside midfielder that goes without alcohol (a testimant to his professionalism) and Scully is also capable of winning the ball outside largely due to his ability to read the play well. Butcher is a 197cm key position player who can play both forward and back, he is seen as a natural footballer. Trengove is a workaholic good sized midfielder from South Australia. Importantly for Demon fans two of these could potentially be picked up if they win 4 or less games.
As a Melbourne supporter I am fundamentally torn between seeing my team win now and win in the future. Morally I am against tanking. I’m not sure on how much it affects club culture but it can’t be good for it. Losing one match is not the end of the world, but losing the will or the intensity to win doesn’t come and go week in week out.
The AFL have made it so appealing for clubs to tank’, they have created this environment for supporters, which is clearly not optimal. Fans should not be going for the opposition team, it’s just not cricket… I mean football.
The tanking methodology seems to be working well for Carlton; they are coming, or so I hear.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Priority_pick
To say that Jack Watts hasn’t had the best first three games of an AFL career is a bit of an understatement. He has been criticized unfairly in the media for his, as of now, very short career.
I put to you that three games at the highest level is not the best yard stick to measure great players by. Some of the greatest players ever had shocking debuts or just generally were not that good to begin with.
Let’s go through some of the past number one draft picks and see how good they were in their first three games and then compare that to Jack Watts.
2000 – Nick Riewoldt (St Kilda)
Roo only had 3 disposals in his first game, followed by 13 and 19 touches but had not yet kicked a goal. He didn’t play until round 15, later than Watts, and averaged 9.5 touches for his first season. He was not really setting the world alight, only scoring two goals in 6 appearances.
First three game average disposals: 10
2001 – Luke Hodge (Hawthorn)
Blooded in round 5 and had 12 touches in his first game, 8 of which were handballs. His next two games were disappointing with just a single touch in one of them and 8 in the other. He did finish off the year well though averaging 16 possessions.
First three game average disposals: 7
2002 – Brendon Goddard (St Kilda)
Goddard had a good debut with 11 touches and a goal and continued that form for the next two matches. Strangely (considering they just had finished last and got the number one draft pick) the Saints were playing well though and won in his second and third matches, which probably boosted his numbers.
First three game average disposals: 14
2003 – Adam Cooney (Western Bulldogs)
Cooney played 19 games in his first season and played round one. His first game was okay with 8 disposals and a goal. The following two games were equally as impressive, but Cooney didn’t really set the world alight until round 20 against Port Adelaide where he collected 28 touches a goal in a losing side.
First three game average disposals: 10
2004 – Brett Deledio (Richmond)
Deledio had 6 marks in his debut match along with 9 disposals followed by 12 and 14. He went on to play all the matches in the season averaging 15 touches in them.
First three game average disposals: 12
2005 – Marc Murphy (Carlton)
Murphy had the best start to a career of the lot. He averaged 17 in his first three games and 18 for the season (including the game he was injured with just 3 touches to his name); he is the exception to the rule.
First three game average disposals: 17
2006 – Bryce Gibbs (Carlton)
Gibbs was fairly good when he debuted in round one in 2007, 7 kicks and a goal to his name is a fairly good return for Carlton on their number one pick. 18 and 13 disposals after that proved that he was not just a flash in the pan.
First three game average disposals: 14
2007 – Matthew Kreuzer (Carlton)
Kreuzer was played in round three and collected 16 touches, two goals and 12 hit outs in his debut in Carlton’s loss to Essendon. He obviously had put a lot in to the first game and only could manage 7 touches and 8 hitouts in his second. He bettered his second match in his third with 15 possessions.
First three game average disposals: 13
2008 – Jack Watts (Melbourne)
Watts had a baptism of fire against Collingwood where he was gang tackled when he had his first touch. By the end of his debut round 11 Queen’s Birthday clash he had just 8 touches to his name, Melbourne lost the game by a lot. His second game was a bit better because he extracted 2 goals from it, but it was another thrashing for the Dees. His third match was against Brisbane at the Gabba, traditionally Melbourne’s worst venue, where he had 10 touches with minimal impact. Over his only and first three games Watts has averaged just 9 disposals.
First three game average disposals: 9
Watts was a part of Melbourne’s worst losses of the year and can be a little excused by his lack of bulk. Surely he and the club would have wanted a better first three games out of him, but 2 goals and 27 touches isn’t too bad from three games from a 18 year old. Watts is far from the best in the pack compared to these players, but he is meant to be a key position forward and he has kicked two goals already. At this stage of their career Roo still hadn’t kicked a goal. Most of the other players aren’t really comparable because of the positions they play. You certainly cannot compare him to more mature mature-aged recruits like Daniel Rich, who have the tough bodies already.
I think Watts looks slow, which is in starch stark contrast to his draft camp stats of beating all the non-indigenous draftees in the 20m sprint with a time of 2.82 seconds. I think the extra 5 kilos of weight he has put on has hampered his speed and probably his co-ordination too. Let’s not forget that he was All-Australian in juniors and was awarded the Larke Medal for being the best player in the AFL National Under 18 Championships.
Even though there are a few midfielders in the mix–up, the the average number of disposals for all the number number-one draftees since 2000 expect except Jack Watts is just over 12. Jack is a key position player (although he doesn’t allows play there) averaging 9 possessions, which isn’t that different considering the small size of the data- set available for Jack Watts. These kinds of stats definitely do not preclude you from being a terrific player like most of these players have truly become. Watts compares quite well to some other key position players too.
For all the stats on these number one draft picks:
Carlton – 16.15 (111)
West Coast –10.10 (70)
In a largely unforgettable game the Blues have beaten an inefficient West Coast outfit.
It was a much needed win to keep the media at bay after a few questions were asked this week. For West Coast, this game has seemingly relegated them to a likely bottom-four spot.
Key Players for West Coast
• Daniel Kerr – Battled away to finish with 23 possessions and 9 clearances. All of them under pressure.
• Mark Le Cras – West Coast’s only consistent forward option who genuinely provided Carlton with a problem finishing with 6 goals straight’. Some of them were beauties.
• Adam Selwood – In true Selwood fashion, always putting his head over the ball whilst getting the ball 29 times.
• Mitch Brown – Always willing to take the game on’ in the backline whilst not afraid to support the Eagles when running forward. He put the ball inside-50 four times showing his willingness to run.
Musings from the match
• That was a pretty uneventful game.
• The reason why the margin ended that size? West Coast. Kicking. Efficiency.
• Admittedly, Carltons pressure on the ball carrier was really good.
• They finished the game with a 70% disposal efficiency compared to 78% from the Blues.
• Only one player in the Eagle top-10 disposal getters had efficiency over 80% as opposed to 4 from Carlton.
• Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson and Brad Fisher were also very good for the Blue’s.
• Gibb’s disposal efficiency of 91% was especially noteworthy.
• Daniel Kerr was harassed at every turn by Joseph. He did well to not lose his cool. 19 handballs and 16 contested possessions shows as much.
• The umpire’s interpretation of holding the ball changed during the game which was frustrating.
• West Coast lack of quality forward-50 entries, which was a problem last week continued.
• Mark Le Cras showed the importance of his presence in the team. You have to wonder how they would have gone last week against Collingwood if he played.
SuperCoach scores and game stats from the Herald Sun game page
